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    Pair Size (PRDX) Predicted Opened
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    Pair Predicted PNL (PRDX) Opened Closed

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    # Pair Size (PRDX) Leverage Predicted Price Mark Price Unrealized PNL (PRDX) Opened at Available at Action
    # Pair Size (PRDX) Leverage Predicted Price Closed Price Realized PNL (PRDX) Opened at Ended at
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    Ready to start staking?


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    25%50%75%MAX
    I've read and accepted the Terms and Conditions
    Staking rewards are determined based on a leveled system, consisting of three levels. When staking, the tokens will be held inside the staking smart contract (non-custodial) and can be redeemed at any time. See the table below for details:
    Level Min. PRDX amount Weekly Monthly Yearly
    1 50 0.25% 1% 13.9%
    2 500 0.50% 2% 29.6%
    3 5,000 0.85% 3.44% 55.3%
    All staking rewards are compounding, meaning that interest is earned over the previous interest without the need to start over the staking process. Distribution happens once a week, and due to its compounding nature, it's not possible to add more tokens with the same wallet if you're already staking. Unstaking will recover all your tokens at once and claim your rewards.

    Click for more information about the staking process

    Proof of Liquidity System


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    Looks like you don't have any LP tokens or rewards to receive on PRDX/ETH. But don't worry, it's easy to start farming with the PoL system!

    Simply follow these steps:

    - Go to Uniswap (or click on the Swap menu), choose Pool at the top left corner and add liquidity to PRDX/ETH.
    - Once that's done, refresh this page or click the Farm menu again while connected.
    - Input your LP tokens, approve and farm! That's it, you're automatically eligible for future rewards!
    Balance: 124.2512
    MAX
    0 PRDX
    * If you'd like to farm with more LP tokens, please unstake first.


    We'll show you the light!

    You can either start reading the full explanation below or skip to the quick guide by clicking here.




    Overview

    PreDex is a prediction market powered by Predix Network and its native PRDX that allows for transparent and non-custodial leveraged predicting on Uniswap pairs. PreDex uses the native Uniswap v2 price oracle for prediction settlement. This oracle uses a so-called TWAP (Time Weighted Average Price) to protect against flash-swap attacks and price manipulation.


    Prediction Life-cycle

    When a user makes a prediction it goes through the following life-cycle:
    - The user sets the parameters on the prediction submission form on the UI (price, amount, timestamp, leverage)
    - The user approves the PreDex Router.
    - The user opens the prediction, transfering the PRDX tokens to the PreDex Router.
    - A few minutes before the prediction timestamp the user can start the settlement process by initiating the TWAP (see settlement for more details).
    - After the TWAP time has elapsed, the user can finish the settlement by closing the prediction. The rewards are calculated (see risk/reward) and paid to the user depending on the performance of the prediction.


    Settlement

    PreDex uses a TWAP of length T to settle predictions. As different markets have different amounts of volume, pool liquidity and arbitrage traders, the length T is market-specific. A bigger value for T means a more secure way of price fetching but this naturally causes the process of closing a prediction to extend. Example: the PRDX/ETH market has a TWAP length of 10 minutes, so T = 10 minutes. The user initiates the TWAP (which is available 10 minutes before the predicted timestamp) and 10 minutes later closes the prediction, at which time the full settlement happens.


    Theta Decay

    Very much like options, predictions can suffer from theta-decay. PreDex uses linear theta decay that starts after a fraction a of the prediction age. Currently, a = 7. This means that for a prediction of 1 week in the future (a prediction age of 1 week), there is a decay-free period of approximately 1 day that starts when the prediction becomes available to close (at the end of the week). The decay-free period is set in place as to give the users more flexibility and ease of mind as to what timestamps to use. The linear theta decay allows the user to not immediately close their prediction when it becomes available, even when it is at a net-loss. Example: let's say you have an open prediction that is about to become available to settle but the prediction is off by a lot, meaning that if you were to settle the prediction at current prices, you'd lose. If you think price will move to your predicted price however, you can decide to wait and see if the price does indeed move closer to your target. Note: the longer you wait, the more your prediction has suffered from time-decay and thus the reward will be lower and the opportunity cost higher. When the theta decay factor has gone to 0, one loses the prediction. This means that instead of winning 0 PRDX you lose and get back a certain amount determined by the refund percentage.


    Risk/Reward

    Making a prediction naturally comes with a risk/reward ratio. With PreDex, the risk is very simple: there is a preset refund fraction R. This fraction is market-specific and tells you what percentage of the prediction value you get back in the case of a wrong prediction. This means that for every prediction you open, no matter the size, you can only lose (1-R)%. The reward is limitless. To determine whether your prediction was right or wrong, PreDex uses a so-called "invalidation curve". This curve gives the maximum allowed percentage difference between the predicted price and the price at settlement for a prediction before being considered wrong. This curve only depends on the prediction age; the longer the prediction, the more you can be off. The reward depends on multiple variables: the prediction value, the predicted price, the close price, the prediction age, the time of closing the prediction and the leverage. For the exact equations of the reward curve and dependence on the forementioned variables, please refer to the whitepaper: https://predix.network/predex.pdf. PreDex also supports leverage, multiplying the potential rewards by the amount of leverage you use. The invalidation curve gets divided by the amount of leverage used. Example: a prediction with age T having an invalidation percentage of 5% at 1x leverage is invalidated at >1% at 5x leverage.




    Ain't nobody got time for that! (Quick Guide)


    So you just want to know which buttons to press, right? Here's the deal:

    No web3 wallet or ETH yet?
    1 - You can download Metamask for Chrome here
    2 - You can then transfer some ETH from most crypto exchanges to your Metamask wallet


    Wallet ready? Cool:
    1 - Connect at the top right corner
    2 - Get some PRDX in the Swap menu
    3 - Select the market you want in the Predict page
    4 - How much is the price going to be and when? Define that, your leverage and how much you want to bet in that idea
    5 - Hit Approve and confirm the transaction in your wallet
    6 - Afterwards hit Open Prediction and confirm it again, keep in mind open predictions can't be canceled
    7 - Done! You can now check it in your Open Predictions tab


    Okay, and how to close the prediction?
    1 - When your prediction is about to end, you'll be able to click the "Start Closure" button in your Open Predictions tab
    2 - After that, wait for around 10 minutes and settle it by clicking the "Close Prediction" button
    3 - Done! If your prediction was right you just won some PRDX! :)

    Note: predictions don't need to be exact to win, you can also win if it's almost right, this varies greatly with the leverage (the less, the easier it is to win, but also the less rewards you'll receive) and the time window used (the more in the future, the easier it is to win)

    Any questions, feel free to drop them in our telegram!

    Leaderboard

    The most profitable traders of all time on PreDex

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    Rank User Address Open Predictions Closed Predictions Volume (PRDX) PNL (PRDX)